Israel Opens Polls for Knesset Election With No Clear Winner

Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. Tuesday morning across Israel as eligible voters began the process of electing the country’s next Knesset. The vote determines whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his current coalition will retain power or if an opposition bloc will replace them. This is the first national election held since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

Recent polling suggests a tight race between the two main political camps. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has taken the lead in most surveys, outperforming Netanyahu’s Likud party. However, neither side appears capable of securing the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority on its own. The final outcome may depend on how smaller parties perform relative to the electoral threshold.

The Channel 12 poll released on Friday, the last major survey before the election, projected Netanyahu’s bloc would win 50 seats. The opposition bloc was projected to win 56 seats. Arab parties were estimated to secure a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged to avoid forming a government with Arab parties, citing the events of October 7 as the primary reason for their stance.

Within the specific party breakdown, Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to receive 22 seats. This figure places it ahead of Likud, which was projected to win 19 seats, a drop from the 32 seats it currently holds in the outgoing Knesset. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party was projected to win 14 seats.

Key issues driving voter decisions include the Israel Defense Forces’ manpower crisis after three years of war and the debate over ultra-Orthodox conscription legislation. Many voters are also focused on the call for a state commission of inquiry into government failures surrounding the October 7 attack. Traditional economic and social issues have receded in importance as security concerns dominate the discourse.

The fate of Netanyahu, who has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years, remains a central question. The opposition bloc argues that he should be held accountable for the events of October 7 and removed from the premiership. His supporters view the election as a chance to stabilize the government and continue the war effort.

Voter turnout will play a decisive role in the final tally. The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes, meaning the number of votes required to enter the Knesset changes based on total participation. According to calculations by the Taub Center, a party needs 165,635 votes to cross the threshold if turnout mirrors the 2022 election at 70%. Higher turnout increases the required vote count, making it harder for smaller parties to qualify.

Several minor parties are fighting to clear this threshold, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics party. Their success or failure will influence the coalition dynamics, as their seats could tip the balance for either bloc. A slight shift in support could determine whether these parties gain representation or leave their voters without a seat in the new parliament.

Police forces have prepared for potential public order disruptions, particularly in the hours following the release of exit polls. Authorities deployed approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers across the country. These forces were positioned at thousands of polling stations and in surrounding areas to maintain safety. The police stated that these measures are designed to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process is conducted according to law.

Voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad concluded on October 16, while military bases began voting last week. Exit polls are expected to be released at 10:00 p.m. Tuesday, providing preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the full vote count is completed.