Polls show Israeli opposition leading by two seats as blocs fall short of 61

Israelis will cast ballots on Tuesday for the first time since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The election will determine which coalition controls the 120-seat Knesset, a body that serves four-year terms and requires a party to clear a 3.25 percent threshold to enter.

A final survey by public broadcaster KAN, conducted before a publication ban took effect on Friday, indicated that neither of the two main political blocs holds the 61 seats necessary for a majority. The opposition alliance is projected to win 52 seats, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is expected to secure 50. The remaining seats are allocated to unaffiliated parties, including the Raam and Joint List, which are Arab-majority lists.

Netanyahu’s bloc is anchored by his Likud party and includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners. These partners comprise United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and the Religious Zionism-Zehut party. The latter is led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The opposing coalition consists of four Jewish-led movements: the Yashar party of Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by Yair Golan, Yisrael Beiteinu under Avigdor Lieberman, and the Together alliance of Naftali Bennett. Yair Lapid has joined the Together alliance to lead the opposition effort.

Both major coalitions have indicated they will not partner with the Arab-led parties in the immediate aftermath of the vote. This exclusion complicates the formation of a governing majority and increases the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal opposition factions view this contest as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

The election occurs while Israel faces international scrutiny over its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Several allies have sanctioned settlements in the occupied West Bank, and numerous nations have criticized continued attacks. When Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys left the chamber, with some booing. His status as the longest-serving prime minister is also a focal point, having led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years.

Netanyahu faces specific personal risks in this vote. He is currently on trial for corruption, a process he has contested since 2019, and a conviction could result in a prison sentence. A defeat in the legislature would leave him more vulnerable in that ongoing legal battle. Additionally, the International Criminal Court holds an arrest warrant for him for war crimes. A new government may also alter the prospects for an inquiry into the security failures preceding the October 2023 attacks.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including about 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polling suggests turnout in that community could reach 60 percent, which would allow Arab parties to win as many as 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout rate, a level not seen in decades. The Central Elections Committee recently voted to bar the Joint List and Raam, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race after an article described the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.